The Mortgage Man

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Archive for Jobless Claims

Mortgage Bonds Trading At Historic Highs

Today the jobless claims report came out for December with a total of 524,000 jobs lost.  This was worse than projections of 500,000, but far better than rumors of nearly 700,000.  So far this morning, bond traders are reacting to the rumor and not the projection by selling mortgage bonds.

As mortgage rates continue to be unbelieveably low, the stock market is struggling.  Wal-Mart reported that due to one of the worst holiday shopping seasons on record, they will not meet expectations for the 4th quarter.  This continues to fuel uncertainty in the greater economy, and economic uncertainty drives investors to sell stocks and buy bonds.  Long term, this is good for mortgage rates and the real estate market.

Also, the FED announced yesterday that through the first 3 days of this week, they bought $10.2 billion in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginne Mae mortgage backed securities, part of their overall plan to buy up over $500 billion in MBS’s between now and June.


Thursday November 13, 2008

Mortgage Bonds move higher.

After a sharp sell off earlier this week, mortgage bonds are making a comeback today and appear to be holding steady right at the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.  This has had a positive affect on rates this morning as I am quoting 30 year fixed conventional rates below 6% for the first time in over a week.

Initial jobless claims came out significantly worse than expected at 516,000 vs. the expected 479,000.  In addition, continuing jobless claims reached a 25 year high at 3.89 million.  This bad news for the economy is generally seen as a positive for the bond market as the likelihood of inflation lessens.

At the time of this post, the stock market is up slightly.

To keep up with the latest mortgage rates, go to, or call 888-25-STEVE (78383)

A Good Day For The Mortgage Market

Bad news for Stocks means good news for Bonds.

After several days of the bond market getting severely pummelled, they are making a comeback today on some pretty nasty economic news.  First, jobless claims jumped to 406,000 last week.  This is much worse than expected, and the highest rate since March 2008.  Additionally, existing home sales were down, and inventory for existing homes was up.  Both of these combine to show that the economy and the housing market has yet to hit bottom (although I still believe that we are close).

On the stock market, Ford Motor Co. reported a loss of nearly $9 billion for the 2nd quarter.  This combined with a major bullish run on stocks over the last week has led investors taking profits and putting them over into bonds.  At the time of this post, mortgage bonds are up 34 basis points on the day.  They have moved decisively through one level of upside resistance, and are currently holding at a 2nd level of resistance.

This will help to recover some of the recent losses, but it may still be a good time to lock based on continued volitility in the markets before closing.

Thursday July 10, 2008

Weekly jobless claims fall, market reacts.

The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report came out today much better than forecast.  With 58,000 fewer claims, the report sank to 346,000, the lowest level since April.  This news, which is good for the economy, would normally be seen as bad news for mortgage bonds.  But, mortgage bonds appear to be remaining relatively flat on the news.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and FED chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the House Financial Services Committee today to suggest ways that Congress could “fix” the financial regulatory system to prevent future crises.  I managed to make it through about 30 minutes of the meeting before the barage of stupid questions followed by equally predictable answers gave me a head ache.  At least they do agree on one thing…we need more government intervention.  AWESOME!!  Nothing says efficiency and dependability like putting it in the hands of the government.

Back to the matter at hand; if you are currently working on a mortgage loan, I would suggest locking your rate now.  Bond prices are currently testing the topside support level of the 200 day moving average.  Given the difficulty of crossing that major threashold, combined with the fact that no other significant economic data is due out this week, mortgage bonds are probably about as good as they are going to get in the near term.

Thursday May 22, 2008

Today’s Mortgage Market Is Battered Again By Oil Prices And Threats Of Inflation!

With oil prices hitting another record high at over $135 per barrel, inflation fears are stirring the mortgage bond market to run for the hills.  Mortgage bonds have fallen through 3 major levels of support at the 25 day, 50 day and 100 day moving averages.  For the market to bust through 3 different levels of support is significant, and if you have a mortgage loan working that is not locked…I highly recommend locking today to protect from continued losses.

The jobless claims report came out a little better than expected at 365,000 vs. the projection of 372,000.  Even though this report was better than expected, it still shows significant weakness in the jobs sector, and therefore did not pose any immediate help to the financial markets.

In other financial news, UBS AG reported an additional write off of $19 Billion in subprime mortgage losses.  This is not good news for the sector in general as it indicates that we are not out of the water yet with the credit crisis.