The Mortgage Man

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Archive for August, 2008

Thursday August 28, 2008

Here is how the market is shaking out today.

Today, the preliminary Gross Domestic Product report came in at 3.3% above expectations of 2.7%, and well over the previously reported 1.9%.  The final number for this report is not due out until next month, but the preliminary reading has people exiting bonds and buying stocks today.

Because of this, you might want to lock your rate if you have a loan in processing.  Additional pressure on bonds is being created by oil prices trading above $120 per barrel again on fears of Hurricane Gustav and how it will affect the 3500 oil drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.  if there is significant damage done to oil drilling operations from Hurricane Gustav, we may see a greater spike in oil next week, creating even more pressure on the bond market.

Lots of uncertainty on the horizon, but prudence may be the word of the day in my advice to lock in and protect from potential loss.

Gustav Threatens The Gulf Coast

Here we go again!

Well, we don’t get wildfires or mudslides or earthquakes, but we do stand in the way of nature’s fury in the way of tropical hurricanes.  Just as most of Florida is still wringing out their shorts from the deluge of rain in Fay, we are again squarely in the cross hairs of Hurricane Gustav.  Many didn’t take Fay seriously because it never reached hurricane status, and yet it set records for rain fall and is the only named storm in history to make landfall 4 times in the U.S.

Gustav, however, commands out respect from the start.  Already reaching hurricane status before it even gets into the gulf, Gustav threatens to be a category 3 before making landfall somewhere along the gulf coast early next week.

In keeping with the theme of this blog, we will focus on the potential implications of this storm as it relates to real estate and the economy.

If you are purchasing a home, make sure that you have your insurance in place immediately.  A Citizens policy (in Florida) will not write new coverage, increase coverage, or make any policy changes “when a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch or  Warning has been issued by the National Weather Service for any part of the State of Florida.”  Other insurance companies have a map of the Gulf of Mexico and draw a dotted line border around a certain geographic area called “The Box”.  If a named storm (tropical or hurricane) enters that box, they will not write new policies or make changes to existing policies until the storm hits land.  In some situations, this could delay closing for a week or more until the storm runs its course.

If you already own your home, now is the time to prepare.  Even with the number of hurricanes that we are exposed to on an annual basis, there are a shocking number of people that do not prepare.  Preparing your house means:

  • Check the trees around your house for dead limbs, these are the first to come down
  • Make sure that you have adequate protection for doors and windows.  Taping the windows is a waste of time.  Either board them up, or spend your time on other things.  Tape will not stop debris and it will not keep the glass from shattering.
  • Take photos of your property for insurance purposes.  If you happen to be the minority that keeps receipts for everything you own, this may be less important.  Be as specific as possible, and a video recording of everything is the preferred method.
  • Pack up anything that can not be easily replaced.  This would include family heirlooms, photos, jewelry, etc.  Also take insurance forms and important paperwork such as deeds and wills.
  • Assume that when you get back to your home, there will be no power and no water.  Fill a bath tub full of water to use for flushing toilets and possibly boil for drinking water.

There are many more resources on how to prepare your family and pets at NOAA.gov .

Existing Home Sales Better Than Expected

Does today’s existing home sales report mean that we have finally hit bottom?

Existing home  sales for July came in at 5.0 million ahead of estimates at 4.9 million.  Despite this seemingly positive news, stocks are down today fueled by uncertainty with Fannie and Freddie, and traders are moving money into mortgage bonds searching for more security.

Mortgage bonds are currently up slightly today, and we can continue to watch bonds to determine where mortgage rates are going to go in the next 24 hours.  Over the last few days of trading last week, mortgage bonds broke through both the 25 day and the 50 day moving averages.  This could be a positive trend longer term if they can hold these levels.  Currently, bonds are trading in a sideways channel between the 50 day and 100 day moving average.  Today is probably a good day to float your rate pending any major movement.  If stocks start to recover, it would be prudent to lock your mortgage rate to hedge against pending corrections in the futures market.