The Mortgage Man

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Archive for The Mortgage Market

Friday November 14, 2008

This weeks financial news wrap up.

It is interesting the times that we live in right now.  The 500 point intraday swings in the stock market have become so commonplace that no one even gets excited about it anymore.  Even yesterday, there was an intraday low of -331 only to rally in the afternoon to +552, a nearly 900 point intraday swing.  What is even more curious is a buying rally after incredibly bad economic reports.

All of this leads to the conclusion that the markets are trading almost entirely on emotion.  Fundamentals appear to have no affect, and that uncertainty bleeds over to the bond market as well.

Mortgage bonds started the week on a downward slide, then recovered Wednesday and Thursday morning with a nice rally.  That rally began losing steam yesterday afternoon and continues to show weakness this morning.  Daily volatility aside, mortgage rates long term are better than they have been in about a month and continue to trade in a near sideways channel.

Conventional wisdom would lead us to believe that as poor economic data comes out, investors would pull money out of stocks, invest in bonds, driving up the yield and driving down mortgage rates.  But, as previously discuss, conventional wisdom does not appear to have a place in this market.

All in all, if you have a mortgage loan in process that you have not yet locked, my bias would be towards locking to protect against uncertainty.

For today’s mortgage rates, or to apply for a mortgage loan, go to SteveRussellOnline.com.  Or call 888-257-8383 for a free consultation.

Thursday November 13, 2008

Mortgage Bonds move higher.

After a sharp sell off earlier this week, mortgage bonds are making a comeback today and appear to be holding steady right at the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.  This has had a positive affect on rates this morning as I am quoting 30 year fixed conventional rates below 6% for the first time in over a week.

Initial jobless claims came out significantly worse than expected at 516,000 vs. the expected 479,000.  In addition, continuing jobless claims reached a 25 year high at 3.89 million.  This bad news for the economy is generally seen as a positive for the bond market as the likelihood of inflation lessens.

At the time of this post, the stock market is up slightly.

To keep up with the latest mortgage rates, go to www.SteveRussellOnline.com, or call 888-25-STEVE (78383)

Monday November 10, 2008

Stocks are higher this morning following a rally in the Chinese market after a government stimulus plan for $586 Billion was announced to help relieve their struggling economy.  As the stock market shows signs of life, it will continue to put pressure on bonds this week to hold their current levels above established resistance.

Also scheduled this week, the Treasury Department will be auctioning off $55 Billion in treasury notes which will no doubt put even greater pressure on the bond yield.  If the yield on mortgage bonds falls, mortgage rates will go up to meet the market demand.

Watch rates carefully this week.  If you have a loan in process, it would probably be prudent to lock ahead of potentially bad news in the financial markets.  If you are still looking for a house, or are not ready to lock, it may cost you on your mortgage rates later this week.

Friday October 24, 2008

Mortgage bonds move below 200 day average.

It is really amazing how much the global money markets are intertwined.  Overnight, Japan’s stock market plummeted after lower than expected earnings were reported for Samsung and Sony.  That ripple effect moved over to Britain’s markets where the economy shrank for the first time since 1992, signaling a confirmed recession.  The combination of the foreign markets having a really bad day led the Dow Futures to halt trading before the open this morning.  Halting trading on Dow Futures is extremely rare, and a sure sign of volitility.

In normal market conditions, a selloff in stocks would mean money was moving into bonds, and would typically signal a good day for mortgage rates.  Today, however, because of the continued liquidity issues with the market, the rush seems to be towards cash for safety.  Mortgage bonds moved below the 200 day moving average which is generally a sign of long term trends.  If you have an active mortgage file that has not yet been locked, it would be prudent to do so today ahead of uncertain volitility and worsening rates.

Some good news came out today.  Existing homes sales soared to a 13 month high signaling a boost in the real estate market.  And, Oil was trading as low at $64 per barrel.  This is due in large part to the strenghening dollar as compared to other global currencies.  But, when you are at the pump getting gas for $1 less than 3 months ago, few people care why, they are just glad to see it.

Tuesday October 21, 2008

World’s largest bond fund increases stake in mortgage backed securities.

Mortgage bonds moved higher yesterday on the news that Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund, has increased it’s stake in mortgage backed securities to an all time high.  This led investors to believe that the risk is worth the price in mortgage bonds, and prices soared.

As a home buyer, this means that rates got a lot more aggressive yesterday, and if you are actively seeking a home, it might be a good time to lock your rate.  The drastic increase in rates last week have been almost completely erased, and on a technical level, mortgage bonds have moved back above the 25, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages.  Pushing through those levels of resistance is a positive sign long term for mortgage rates.

For the latest rates, check www.SteveRussellOnline.com.

Mortgage Rates Attempt A Recovery

Mortgage Bonds have been slaughtered lately, but may be correcting.

If you checked rates last week, and then looked again this week, you may have noticed that they are about .5% worse.  Mortgage rates are based on the trades that happen with mortgage bonds and mortgage backed securities.  When traders and investors are buying them, the price goes up, and mortgage rates come down.  When the market is scared of them, the demand decreases which drives up the yield curve for mortgage bonds and therefore causes interest rates to rise to a point where investors are comfortable buying the paper.

If you were looking at a mortgage bond trading chart last week, it looked similar to rolling a marble off the kitchen table…not good.  This week, bonds have been recognized as over-sold, and have recovered almost 50% of the losses.  For answers to your mortgage and real estate questions, check back here often.

If you are currently interested in taking advantage of this incredible real estate market, call me at 888-257-8383, or apply online at www.SteveRussellOnline.com.

Thursday September 18, 2008

Today’s bond market and its affect on mortgage rates.

At present, the bond market is moving in a sideways channel between resistance and support.  The cash infusion by The Fed has had some positive affects on the stock market today which is creating pressure on bonds.  There is no clear up or down swing predicted to happen today in mortgage rates and mortgage bonds, but due to unexpected volitility in the markets that could happen at any time, it would be prudent to go ahead and lock your rate if you have a mortgage loan in process.

Enjoy your day, and try to think about something other than the stock market.